TWO ARMIES INTO ONE WON'T GO
The Economist
May 7th 2009
With peace in its grasp, Nepal is let down by its politicians and its
army
TO MUCH of the outside world, Nepal has seemed blissfully quiet in
recent months. The peace process that ended a bloody ten-year civil war
in 2006 seemed on track, and outsiders could go back to seeing the
place as a small Himalayan holiday-spot of little concern.
But Nepal is neither insignificant nor irrelevant. It has nearly 30m
people and occupies a strategic position between Asia's emerging
giants, India and China. And the notion that its divisions were healed
was an illusion that has been shattered by a bust-up between the prime
minister and the army (see article[1]). The country now faces a crisis
for which the Maoists, the other parties and the army all share
responsibility. So do Nepal's foreign partners, especially the most
important one, India.
It was a jolt to most foreign observers and the Nepali elite when
Maoist insurgents won the most seats in an election a year ago. The
shock eased as the rebels swapped combat fatigues for lounge suits, put
on weight and started to resemble normal grasping politicians. Just as
in peace processes from Northern Ireland to Sri Lanka, however, Nepal's
politicians left the hardest parts to last.
The deferred, intractable issue is the future of Nepal's security
forces. What was once the "Royal" Nepal Army, which propped up the now
deposed king, Gyanendra, in a short-lived dictatorship, has been
refusing to follow the writ of the government of the new republic, led
by the Maoist leader, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, better known by his NOM DE
GUERRE, Prachanda. Under the peace agreement, the Maoists' ragtag bunch
of guerrillas was supposed to be integrated with the proper army.
The army will have nothing of it, so former Maoist fighters are still
holed up in United Nations-supervised cantonments. Mr Dahal sacked the
army chief. The president reinstated him, so the prime minister has now
resigned.
The Maoists have, in part, themselves to blame for making the army--and
everyone else--nervous about their commitment to pluralism. Although
they have confounded fears that they would be a Nepali, elected Khmer
Rouge, they still talk (amongst themselves, at least) about a
totalitarian-sounding "people's republic". Their youth wing is guilty
of thuggery. Yet, whatever their private ambitions, Mr Dahal has
offered to join a government of national unity if the president
rescinds his reinstatement of the army chief. That seems the least bad
outcome. But it relies on the acquiescence of the other political
parties and the army, who have seemed even more hostile than do the
Maoists to the peace deal they all struck.
In last year's election the Maoists won 38% of the seats in a
Constituent Assembly. The other, losing, parties came out in support of
the sacked army commander and seemed ready, with army backing, to form
a government without the Maoists. The former rebels thus captured the
democratic high ground. And to do its job--drafting a constitution--the
assembly needs the Maoists, who have a blocking vote.
DELHI DALLYING
Nepal's foreign donors should have pushed harder for the establishment
of proper civilian control over the army. India, which did much to
engineer the peace, has quietly backed the army commander's
unconstitutional disobedience. The Delhi government sees the army as
its truest friend in Nepal, where it has long had an overweening
influence. Facing a large, scattered Maoist rebellion of its own, India
has also been alarmed by the Nepali Maoists' rapprochement with China
(which had no time for them when they were mere leftist guerrillas).
In standing down, Mr Dahal has been able to present himself as both a
champion of the poor, and defender of Nepali pride against a meddling
neighbour. The Maoists' prestige may be further bolstered in coming
months by their having quit government at a time of mounting economic
hardship and disillusionment with the peace process. All this may
strengthen them. Eventually, India and other powers will have to accept
that the Maoists are in Nepali politics for the long haul.
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